Life-time Conviction

Life-time Conviction in Europe

Life-time Conviction Risk – a Synthetic Cohort Approach

Torbjorn Skardhamar, from the Statistics Norway, made a contribution to the 2012 Annual Conference of the European Society of Criminology, in the category “Criminological Theory, Research and Education,” under the title “Life-time Conviction Risk – a Synthetic Cohort Approach”. Here is the abstract: It is of considerable importance to know what is the expected life-time conviction risk in the population because it tells us how many will be affected by criminal policy. I present estimates for how many are expected to be convicted by the age of 100 by constructing a “synthetic cohort” based on age-specific probabilities of getting a first conviction in 2008 and calculate life-table estimates for this hypothetical population. The data are gathered from Norwegian administrative records of the entire resident population in Norway. First, I calculate the expected life-time risk of conviction based on the figures for 2008, explaining the details of the approach. Second, I estimate figures for each year 1992 through 2008. Third, I estimate similar figures for unconditional prison sentences. Finally; I estimate the proportion expected to get any kind of criminal record – including when there is no conviction. I find that 11.5% of the population is expected to be convicted by the age of 100, 4.6% is expected to receive an unconditional prison sentence, and 39.4% is expected to get any kind of criminal record. Of course, the figures for men are substantial higher, and for women lower.


See Also

Further Reading

  • “Life-time Conviction Risk – a Synthetic Cohort Approach”, by Torbjorn Skardhamar (Proceedings)

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