Prediction of Crime

Prediction of Crime in Europe

Prediction of Crime and Early Interventions – a Study Using Danish Administrative Data

Mogens Christoffersen, from the The Danish National Centre for Social Research, made a contribution to the 2012 Annual Conference of the European Society of Criminology, in the category “Crime Prevention,” under the title “Prediction of Crime and Early Interventions – a Study Using Danish Administrative Data”. Here is the abstract: This paper presents a prospective longitudinal study that attempts to predict juvenile delinquency measured by first contact with the police (arrest, pre-trial detention or charges of crimes) taking a complete cohort of all children born in Denmark in 1984 (N=58,000). The children are followed from birth to early adulthood in 2006. The predictors represent the major crime reduction paradigms, such as family circumstance and individual skills. A discrete-time Cox model is used to allow for changing covariates over time. The population had 6,000 first time contacts with the police over the 300,000 person-years available. Results showed that the proportion of 'false-positives' were about 72 % of estimated high-risk subjects. On the basis of these results it is recommended that early crime prevention measures only include (a) measures with convincing demonstration of causal and preventive effects and (b) measures regarded as positive by the participants.

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Further Reading

  • “Prediction of Crime and Early Interventions – a Study Using Danish Administrative Data”, by Mogens Christoffersen (Proceedings)

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